Long-Term Urban Traffic Speed Prediction With Deep Learning on Graphs

James J.Q. Yu, Christos Markos, and Shiyao Zhang*
IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, in press

Traffic speed prediction is among the foundations of advanced traffic management and the gradual deployment of internet of things sensors is empowering data-driven approaches for the prediction. Nonetheless, existing research studies mainly focus on short-term traffic prediction that covers up to one hour forecast into the future. Previous long-term prediction approaches experience error accumulation, exposure bias, or generate future data of low granularity. In this paper, a novel data-driven, long-term, high-granularity traffic speed prediction approach is proposed based on recent development of graph deep learning techniques. The proposed model utilizes a predictor-regularizer architecture to embed the spatial-temporal data correlation of traffic dynamics in the prediction process. Graph convolutions are widely adopted in both sub-networks for geometrical latent information extraction and reconstruction. To assess the performance of the proposed approach, comprehensive case studies are conducted on real-world datasets and consistent improvements can be observed over baselines. This work is among the pioneering efforts on network-wide long-term traffic speed prediction. The design principles of the proposed approach can serve as a reference point for future transportation research leveraging deep learning.

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